Rubbertoe's Countdown to the Next American Idol

So I was 4 of 6 for each of the boys and girls on my top 12 prediction. I really thought that Eben would make it onto the top 12. There have been many young guys before and I thought with his talent and his Bieberish looks he would get on. I also thought that Jenn Hirsch would get picked at least as a wild card. The judges have been pushing her from the beginning. I was happy to see that neither Creighton Fraker or Grimm Reed got on though....I couldn't have sat through many more shows with either of them. The biggest robbery in the selections was the fact that Aaron Marcellus wasn't selected. I believe that had they not brought back on Jermaine and the sympathy votes, Aaron would not have been denied his rightful place in the top 13. Anyway....on to my predictions

13. Jessica Sanchez - Because a girl almost always gets voted off first...and honestly, I don't know anything about her. She doesn't stand out to me. I don't remember her from any of the shows...I slept through her top 12 girl performance (Not her fault)....

12. Ericka Van Pelt - Although there are more guys than girls, I believe the first two to go will be women. This is the pattern that he have seen for a couple of seasons.

11. Heejun Han - I was surprized that he made the top 13, not because he doesn't have a good voice, I think that he does. He just isn't the AI mold and I don't think that he will stick around long

10. Jermaine Jones - I am a little worried about my pick here. I am suspicious of AI's "X-Factor" imitating. I fully expect a Jermaine Jones win so that like X-Factor Idol can claim in all its feigned drama glory "OMG....and we almost let this golden child go". Ok....maybe its me being dramatic here. Either Jermaines sympathy votes are going to wear off quick or he is going to go a whole lot further.
(Maybe they'll use the judges "save" to save him once again before they crown him this years AI...and then they will have one-upped X-Factor and be able to say...."OMG...we almost let this gem go TWICE)

9. Deandre Brackensick - He's cute....he can sing..and he might go a lot further...but I think he'll go fairly quickly once the competition gets into full force.

8. Hollie Cavanaugh - She is going to be this years Phil Stacey/Josh Gracin for me. I hope that she gets cut earlier....and I suspect that she'll make it closer to the top 5...but I'm picking her at #8. She has a good voice, but ZERO stage presence. America wants more personality in its Idol. But in either case....we are going to have to endure several weeks of interviews with her not ENUNCIATING!!!! Hopefully they'll give her a coach and teach her how to speak when she talks.

7. Jeremy Rosado - I honestly don't get this guy. People seem to really like him, but I don't think he is all that good. This is the guy that I expect that the judges will actually use their lame-ass "save" on. Primarily because they almost always save the guy that I don't really like...(e.g. Casey).

6. Elise Testone - I put her out of the top 5 mainly because she doesn't stand out to me. I looked back and some of my previous postings and I have commented on how good her voice is....but she doesn't spark much in my memory.

THE TOP 5

5. Joshua Ledet - This guy is probably the most talented one in the bunch. He very likely could be eliminated much earlier because I don't see America embracing him. I think he's a little too "gay" for the typical AI voter (although I'm not sure that he is) and I think this will hurt him.

4. Phil Phillips - I'm afraid that we are going to have to endure at least several weeks of this guy doing the same song week after week after week. The guy has some charm to him, but honestly, he only knows how to perform 1 song and ever title is just his version with different lyrics....seriously.....SNL could do a great skit on him. For whatever reason, America will vote for him for many weeks to come.

The TOP 3

3. Shannon McGrane - She'll get her hometown moment...complete with a parade in the backseat of a limo with her ex-MLB pitcher father...but she'll be denied a spot in the finale (Unless its a girl v. girl finale)

The Finale

2. Colton Dixon - He's good...he's young...he's hip....he's a throwback to the 80's. AI have been pimping him from the start....beginning with the "He wasn't even going to compete" card. This is straight out of the AI scriptbook for stories and kinda runs with AI's X-factor fascination. He could win the whole thing in a "OMG...he's the next American Idol and we had to talk him into auditioning" drama....but I think this year...Its gotta be a girl.

1. Skylar Laine - C'mon....she's got the perfect name for an Idol superstar...she's got the stage presence and the voice. She's the complete package. Idol has always liked country....but my only hesitation is that last year we had a country finale.... and a Country Idol. However....I don't see that derailing this Reba-eseque girl from the crown.

There ya have it.....my predictions....which I predict will be almost all completely wrong. This is a hard year to predict. Unlike in years past, there have been some easy standouts. I don't have much hope for this bunch. I see this as probably the weakest group since season 6....but maybe they will grow.....

Onto the competition.....

Rubbertoe.....out!

Rubbertoe's predictions Top 6 girls

OK.....so I know the show has aired, but I haven't watched it...and I promise that I haven't peeked. (You'll probably tell because I'll get these all wrong)

This was the way that I rated them last night:
Skylar Lane
Elise
Shannon McGrane
Hallie Day
Chelsea Sorell
Ericka Van Pelt
Jenn Hirsch
Hollie Cavanaugh
Brielle
Baylie Brown
Hailey Johnson

I expect Skylar, Elise, Jenn Hirsch (probably on a wild card), Hollie Cavanaugh (She'll bug me all season because she doesn't E-nun-ci-ate...when she talks, Hallie Day and Shannon McGrane.

Now its time to catch up on my DVR!!!!

Its time for a girl to win....but none of these girls look like an American Idol...that's my first impression....maybe things will change. Hey...at least we didn't have to deal with the "feigned" drama tonight....that was sooooooo boring last night.

First up...Country girl...Chelsea Sorell. She likes to shoot a gun...but hey....hot fiddle guy is back. First spotting of him.
Funny thing...I don't remember this girl at all from the auditions...but I kinda like her. She's got some good stage precense. Voice could be better......Voice 6/performance 7 = 13
Surprisingly the judges were hard on her. I disagree with them here.

Ericka Van Pelt - She sounds like she's singing in a tunnel. Like she's singing in the back of her head. She's got some good stage energy. Voice 5/ performance 7 =12


Jenn Hirsch - Family owns a vineyard....hmmmmmm....Why do people keep singing Adele? Jenn is certainly NO Adele....and whoever did her makeup made her look oragange like an umpaloompa. She's got some good range...but it was just aiiiight for me. Voice 6/Performance 6 = 12 Wow...she looks HUGE next to Ryan.


Brielle - Cheerleader from Stanton Island (with her abnoxious New Jersey Mother)....
Low range is not there at all. Much better in the mid range. Eh....so so.....Voice 6/Performance 6 = 12.
Judges are on crack again....she was NOT good...yet they are fawning over her...REALLY? and shes completely abnoxious on top of it.....she's gotta go soon....

Hallie Day - This song has been done a million times on Idol *(Best by Adam Lambert)...She doesn't have the stage presence to pull this song off. She does have the voice though. Voice 8/Performance 5 = 13


Skylar Lane - She kinda DOES look like Reba tonight. The first time that I've understood the comparison that the judges keep making. Excellent stage precense. Voice good, but not anything that has me jumping up and down. Voice 7/performance 9= 16

Baylie Brown - Another Cheerleader. Trying to make her Grandpa proud. She looks BEAUTIFUL. Performance is lackluster though. Nothing special about the voice. Voice 5/Performance 5 = 10

Hollie Cavanaugh - One thing...she doesn't enunciate when she talks. She has a great singing voice though. Zero stage presence though. Voice 8/Performance 4 = 12
She must been TEENY because Ryan looks like a giant next to her.

Halley Johnson - From Portland Oregon. She's a pretty girl...but she needs a makeover if she is going to be the AI. Oooooo....the beginnign is horrible. Her low range is lacking completely. She's got some stage presence....but the voice is horrendous. Voice 2 (sorry....)/Performance 7 = 9 That was absolutely horrible.

Shannon McGrane - Has the ex-MLB pitcher father. Sport has been a big part of her life. Is she wearing her prom dress? She's got good range. From the lower to the upper. I would say, definitely one of the better voices of the night. Voice 8/Performance 7 = 15

Jessica Sanchez - I slept through it....literally. Don't know how to rate her.

Elise - She's got a great voice....love the raspy quality to it. 8/performance 7 = 15
(another Adele song...but she actually pulls it off).

Skylar Lane
Elise
Shannon McGrane
Hallie Day
Chelsea Sorell
Ericka Van Pelt
Jenn Hirsch
Hollie Cavanaugh
Brielle
Baylie Brown
Hailey Johnson

I'm too tired to do my rankings.....that will have to wait until tomorrow!!!!!

Top 12 Girls: “Kinda Trainwrecky”

Alright, I am on the sofa, drinking my Pressed Juicery “Roots 3” (yum!) and I am ready to watch some Idol! K says “work it Baylie”! She knows the wardrobe tricks.
First up Chelsie – she loves some fishin’, huntin’ and hangin’ with her mom. Song – Cowboy Cassanova. K says – she is also workin’ it tonight. Sounds pretty good – but overall a bit of a lackluster performance. Not sure it was a great choice for her. K agrees with JLo that she “sounded a bit nasally”.

Erika VanPelt – Not much exciting going on in her hometown or with her family. That might not bode well with voters this early – you seem to need a hook. Song- What about Love: Finally someone that the song doesn’t swallow up. Good energy and tone, powered on through that song. Cute hair tonight!

Jen Hirsch – Cali girl and family owns a winery – fun! Song: One and Only – K says ‘boob alert’ two of three. The judges obviously want her to stay. K & I are not as familiar with this Adele tune – so it was hard to know exactly what Jen did with the song.

Brielle – arghh…did not like her or her mom in the earlier part of the competition! If her mom is the ‘mom’ of the group – I feel sorry for those kids. Ugh – this performance is so affected! ‘sittin’ on the doca of the baaayyy’ VFTW will love her! How about that cheerleading move at the end of the song?! K says the judges are on crack and ‘boob alert’ 2.5 of 4 (she tried).

Hallie Day – she and her husband have a cute lil’ house back in Baltimore. Her outfit is not the most flattering – but love the hair. Song: Feelin’ Good - Best voice so far! Nice interpretation of this classic tune. I think the older audience will enjoy her – but not sure what the younger crowd will think –will they keep her in the competition?

Skylar – just muddin’ around in Mississippi! (Ridin’ around with her friend - how many Haleys are out there in the world?!) Song – Stay with me or ‘spazz’ with me!: K says ‘boob alert’ 4.5 of 6. She could probably make a country hit out of this song (didn’t know that Travis Tritt had recorded it). She has had the most energy so far, almost spazzing out on us– love the fist pump with the mic. She really wants to be here.

Baylie – that was sweet that she filmed her grandpa. Song – Amazed – little rocky start and some bum notes here and there. She can hit the power notes when she needs to – but seems to have some trouble with transitions. K says that by herself, she bumbs the boob alert to 7 out of 7.

Hollie – seems to have a nice family and what a cute dog at home! Song – Disney tune? Huge tune and Big voice for such a little girl – wow! She really powered through her nerves much better than Baylie. How about those notes! She could definitely hold her own against the boys.

Note to Idol: if you WANT a girl to win – please don’t bash all the girls and let the guys get by with softball comments!

Haley – hey, I’ve got those rainboots too! She needs them much more in Oregon, I guess. Song – Sweet Dreams: Interesting choice (love this song, but)…kinda creeped out by the eyeballs in the background. Seems a bit screechy and off key to me. K says the whole thing was creepy. Okay – kinda inappropriate comment by Steven? And we are falling behind in the boob alerts.

Shannon – nice house in Tampa. Ryan trying to start something with Steven and Shannon’s dad. Song - ? candle? I’m sure I am unpopular in this thought – but, this song and that dress are too old for a sixteen year old. I know she has a big voice, but I think they could have helped her select a more youthful approach for this early round of voting. Judges clearly love her and want her to stay – you know they would say something different if they didn’t want her in the competition. We have heard them tell younger contestants to pick youthful tunes.

Jessica Sanchez – sympathy card – vocal chord problems. Doin’ some shoppin’ with dad @ home in San Diego. Song – Love you I do - it started a bit low - but she could just be holding back since she has had vocal chord issues. Great power note! (I think this is another example of a song that is too old for the singer – we will see what the judges say…) K says valiant effort with a bum voice! Judges working hard to keep her in the competition (confidence, swagger, perfect pitch, etc.).
Just a thought at this point – on the whole, the boys were just much more entertaining last night.

Elise – beautiful beach in Charleston, SC. Family is in NJ – very sweet and supportive. Song – One and Only: the only girl to use an instrument tonight. Soulful sound - she really has the most naturally soulful voice of the girls. Emotional connection to the song – great! Cute personality – love the room service flowers in her hair. K says enjoyed almost everything about the performance except for the ridiculous hand gestures. Judges love her and want her to stay. BTW – we didn’t realize at the time that Jen had sung the same song – wow – Elise blew her out of the water.

Ones to go home: Chelsea, Brielle, Hallie, Baylie, Haley, Shannon, Jen (although we see that Brielle seems to have a strong voting block – if you are following Dial Idol).

Hey J and Rubbertoe - we can’t wait to hear what you guys are thinking about the Top 24! Looking forward to your posts!
DrL & K

The Guys ....but what is up with Ryan's poofy hair?

The Top 12....er 13 guys.

What's up with Ryans Poofy Hair? Ryan's new look is really bugging me. Maybe it will gorw on me.

Reed Grimm - Doesn't want to change any more dirty diapers. My first impression - I HATE it. He is so corny. Certainly does NOT have the moves like Jagger. Voice 5/performance 2 = 7 (The judges all loved him....I think they are all on crack again to start the season. Its not looking promising)

Adam Brock - Man with a large black woman trapped inside. Really....Aretha? He comes across way too old for Idol. Well...he's no Aretha, that's for sure. He's got a good voice, but once again the performance is weak. Voice 7/Performance 3 = 10

Deandre Brackensick - Love the Hair. Don't love the falsetto in the beginning. He's got a great look, but I don't love this love. Its way too high and annoying.
But he DID hit the real high note. I wanted to love it...but I didn't. Voice 6/Performance 6 = 12

Colton Dixon - I do like his look. Its kind of a throw back to the 80's. I thought he had a great overall package tonight. The judges say that he is "relevant". Voice 7/Performance 8 =15

Jeremy Rosado - the "Cheerleader" of the group. I understand why people like his voice. However, I don't. Its too high and "breathy". Not a bad performance though. Voice 6/Performance 6 = 12. He'll get votes for being a big teddy bear and also the stories of him supporting other people and being the "nice guy".

Aaron Marcellus - I said that he was too "trained" for idol and watching his intro I can see why. He's a vocal teacher and trained dancer. He's certainly more polished than the others and his vocals were right on. The high note at the end was the icing. Voice 8/Performance 8 - 16

Chase Likens - The Country Boy. He's definitely got the country voice. Its not a particularly strong voice though...and his look doesn't scream country so its a little weird looking at him and seeing the package. Overall...not too bad though. Voice 7/Performance 6 = 13 (He looks like a giant standing next to Ryan).

Creighton Fraker - He's certainly unique. This was probably his best performance for me. I've never liked him, but tonight I thought he was pretty good, maybe because he was more toned down. Voice 7/Performance 7 = 14
(Interestingly, we didn't get raves from the judges, only...we don't want to see you go home. Randy "We look at the whole package...but you can certainly sing"....was that a way of saying...you should go home?

Phil Phillips - The pawn shop guy. I like his look and he's got an interesting style, but he's really a one note wonder. What he does it all the same. This would get old really fast. Sadly I think America is going to fall for him and we will have several weeks of the same exact performance week after week. Voice 6/Performance 5 = 11 (He gets the Idol dad pimping).

Eben Frankewitz - He's trying for the Bieber look. I'm not sure picking Adele was a good idea, because she has such a unique voice. Its weird hearing someone else do this song. This was ont his best performance, but he is going to get votes for his Bieberish look. I expect him to make the top 12, despite this performance. Voice 5/performance 6 = 11

Heejun Han - the jokester. Wants to show America that Asians can do more than get high SAT scores. Good solid performance. Didn't blow me away, but solid. Voice 6/Performance 6 =12

Joshua Ledet - Mantasia. Incredible vocals. Best of the night. Vocals 10/Performance 8 = 18. The judges got this one right with their comments.
(He might be a little too gay for America though....I'm just sayin...please prove me wrong America).

Jermaine Jones - "The gentle giant". Major pimping here...playing on the sympathy and he sings "Dreams of my father". Good performance, but this guy is not AI material. Vocals - 7/performance 7 = 14.
Was that a true second chance or was it just Idol feeling sorry for him and giving him one last chance to say goodbye? I'm not sure.





Rubbertoe's Rankings:

Joshua Ledet
Aaron Marcellus
Colton Dixon
Creighton Fraker
Jermaine Jones
Chase Likens
Deadre Brackensick
Heejun Han
Jeremy Rosado
Eban Frankewitz
Phil Phillips
Adam Brock
Reed Grimm


Rubbertoe's Top 5 guys (based on overall): Joshua, Colton, Aaron, Eban and Deandre

America's top 5: Colton, Eben (for his bieberishness), Chase (gets the country vote), Creighton (because America always picks a weird one), Jermaine Jones (sympathy votes).

America will get it wrong with Joshua, but he will go through as a wildcard and I expect Phil Phillips to go through on a potential wildcard.

Ryan and Goliath

New stage-- looks pretty busy. To distract us from the singing?

12 guys: holding off secret 13th?

Up first:Reed:nice, jazzy, holding off on the crazy-- what'd they bleep?
Good song for him. Casey name-drop! KOD spot? Prob think he's strong enough to hold the curse off.

2nd: Adam: (cute dog @ home video) doing Aretha-- looks comfortable onstage. Handkerchief gimmick is going to get old. Pretty good, but kind of a safe choice.
Ah, wouldn't be Idol without gay humor...

3rd: Deandre: Earth, Wind & Fire--falsetto shaky @ first, but pulled it together. Dr L loved it! I'm not as big a fan, but he did okay-- if you like that sound. Does America? Ha!-- Ryan just pimped the kids!

4th: Colton, from my hometown of Murfreesboro; doing Paramour. Good current song-- maybe a little screechy at one point? They obviously love & want to propel him-- will the Tweens respond? Cute kid.

5th: Jeremy:Sara Barelis? Man, I don't listen to enough current radio, I guess.
Pretty voice. Nervous @ start? One of those songs that sounds warbly to me, but the crowd loved it. I do like this kid. They want him to go on.
Side note: Randy's shirt looks ridiculous, and the JLo/Steven shot was cute.

6th: Aaron--doing J5: did adequate job-- not as excited as JLo. Note @ end was an attempt to "wow", but shouldn't have there been more?Seemed like another victim of nerves.

7th: Chase: Country boy. His whistling woke up our cat! Pia sighting. Good voice. Not a fan of these "lyric-gymnastics" songs, because it doesn't leave a lot of air to bust out big notes. But he did okay. So far, judges throwing all softballs.

8th: Creighton: putting shout out to oddballs. Was worried about song choice, but it was a great fit for his voice. Very nice. Dr L got goosebumps. Was all the "6 have to go!" talk supposed to be a hint?

9th: Phil! Southern boys have built in fans, right? Kind of a weird take on In The Air Tonight... Dr L doesn't like his leg-lift move LOL. They CLEARLY want him to stay-- but Randy had to say something. Was almost dirge-like.

10th:the kid, Eben: doing Adele? Holy shit, the stage is on fire!! Rough in most of it, but nice @ the end. I like that Randy is the resident bad guy. Somebody's got to do it. Kid's got a good voice, but this was the worst so far.
The ladies: a shitload of blondes.

11th: Heejun--(cute dog, cuter mom) love this Robbie song. Maybe not best for his range, but sounded sweet. Will he survive Idol Asian curse? They must be concerned he'll get lost in the shuffle. What's up with the glass-less glasses?

12th: Joshua: Mantasia? Well, Idol better pimp the F out of him. Maybe the best voice of the guys? He's got my vote(K). Incredible. If this guy doesn't stay it's the biggest crime in Idol history.

NOW: the mind-fuck:
Number 13 is Jermaine. Since he's 5' 10" that makes Ryan 3' 9"...
Doing Luther. Sounds great-- such a clear tone. Boy he gave it his all! They want him to stay-- will America keep him?

Our call as to who goes home:Adam, Aaron, Eben, Phil, Deandre, Jeremy, with Heejun if a 7th goes.
What did you guys think?

DrL & K

Is Idol trying to become X-Factor and why?

Really...AI.....REALLY?

Does Idol have to take a page from the failed X-Factor and "reinstate a contestant who was previously eliminated?

Are we going to have the same staged drama from AI that we got from X-factor. Is Steven Tyler going to drive to the guys house and tell him that he was been reinstated?

I swear...if the "eliminated" contestant goes on to "win" like the staged and scripted X-factor season....then this is truly the end of American Idol.

If they should have reinstated anyone it should have been Travis Orlando, especially looking at the crop of the top 12 guys.

What's the what

Hey Lil Tasters,

Dr. L is out of town, and I don't want to watch without her, so I won't know who's in the Top 24 until this weekend!
But we'll blog then about who made the cut, and who got a kick in the butt.

-- K