So, I'm working at a bit of an unfair advantage because I'm writing these predictions after the first show of the Top 13 . . . however, I haven't really seen these folks much, if at all, before last night. So, here it goes.
13. Ashton - That performance last night just wreaked of elimination. Her voice just doesn't seem quite strong enough to pull of the diva she wants to be.
12. Karen - Another weak voice . . . mixed with bad outfits . . . equals you will not be going on the tour.
11. Stefano - I think he has a strong voice, but he kind of reminds me of . . . what was his name . . . stripper boy who was eliminated first two seasons ago . . . I can see him producing a really subpar performance one night when he is slated to go third or fourth . . . just a gut instinct on this one.
10. Thia - This pick was a coin toss between Thia and Haley. I think which ever one isn't eliminated will actually make it a few week further . . . if that makes any sense. I think both of them have lovely voices, but are bound for Jasmine Trias land.
9. Naima - She brings an interesting flavor to the competition; however, the only other show I have watched all the way through was the wildcard show . . . and she should not have made it to the Top 13. . . big nose boy was robbed. Anyway, I think the Naima novelty will have worn thin by week 5.
8. Haley - I realize that I have picked a bunch of the girls to go first, but they kind of all sound the same to me with the exception of two. I agree with Rubbertoe that Haley is kind of Kristy Lee Cook in nature . . . with the face of Haley S. (from Jordin Sparks' season. . . the girl who wore the short shorts). Anyway, I can see her making it this far and impressing us once or twice, but . . . her Idol ride will end.
7. Jacob - It pains me to think that Jacob will last this far into the competition and I will have to withstand that Mariah like, upper register assault. I seriously find him painful to hear. However, the Idol audience likes a screaming, soulful male . . . think George what's his name from a few seasons back (Hercules guy) . . . I hope I'm wrong and he goes earlier, but I just don't think so . . .
6. Scotty - This boy has no worries. He is going to get signed to a recording contract from Nashville the minute he is done with Idol. At some point, a theme night is going to trip him up, and I think he is destined for a mid-competition elimination. I think America will get tired of the same George Jones rendition week in and week out.
5. Casey - I think Casey has amazing chops. . . and I originally had him in my Top 3 . . . and he might get there, but I'm smelling an upset. For me, this is upset #1. If he trims that beard up, I think Casey could find a niche in the music industry. I think he has an exceptionally strong voice . . . he just needs to figure out who he is
4. Paul - Based on last night's performance, I would not be surprised if he went home tonight. However, I think this boy has some swagga ... and he is one of the view I have heard sing before. He has a quirky voice and I think it could keep him around for a while . . . I could be very wrong about this one . . . but you gotta go out on a limb every once in a while :)
3. Lauren - Based on last night's performance . . . much like Paul . . . she should be much lower on this list. However, I've also heard her sing before, and I'm attributing last night's performance to nerves and a poor song choice. I think this girl could win the whole thing, but that whole sulky, whiney, crap from last night got under my skin. . . I think it could wear thin and hurt her in the end.
2. James - He definitely channels Adam Lambert in his performances. He is a really cute boy with a really big voice. That alone can carry him into the Top 5. I think his stage presence will carry him into the Top 2. This boy has a career ahead of him, but I don't think he'll quite make it to the top. . .
1. Pia - This girl's voice is infreakingcredible . . . I cringed when she said she was singing Celine Dion... however, she proved my cringe to have been unnecessary. She knocked it out of the park. I can see how she could stumble a bit, and she will need to mix up the ballads with some upbeat music, BUT, Idol is a due a female winner. Crystal was ROBBED last year and we have to go all the way back to Season 6 to find our last female winner - Jordin Sparks. For all of these reasons, and because as of right now, I think she is the most talented.
So, there are my rankings . . . we'll see how the season plays out.