So...even though I predicted that both Toddrick and Alex would leave last week....my predictions have been known to be WAAY off (especially last season when I predicted Kris Allen to be the first of the 12 to go). But regardless, here is my take on the top 12.
12. Lacey - I agree with J. She sneaked into the top 24. She sneaked into the top 12. I just don't see her going much further. I like her, but she comes across a little too old for the Idol crowd and I don't think she will draw in the young voters that comprise the largest voting block.
11. Andrew - This is a tough one because I think he is still riding a wave of initial popularity. I liked him at first, but that wave crashed quite a while ago for me. He just doesn't have the depth. He's a wildcard because it is unknown how widespread his popularity is. I'm guess, not that far.
10. Katie - I'm going with Katie as #10 though my brain tells me that J is right...that she will go further based on her youthful age and the voting patterns. However, my heart tells me that AI voters are still going to vote for talent (however that was proven wrong with Taylor Hicks and many others who went further than they ever should have).
9. Paige - She could go sooner, but AI seems to want her to go further and so I expect her to be around for a few weeks.
8. Aaron - Isn't this the spot where the "chicken littles" that get in usually get voted off? You know...the one's that have some talent, but never really had a chance to win the whole thing because they don't have the "package"?
7. Tim - He's another difficult one. He's got the looks going for him, but last week, he also showed that he does have a good voice. I think he's got enough momentum to propel him this far, probably not much more. But even that momentum could be derailed with one bad performance.
6. Siobhan - I'm with J on this one. I don't see the talent here. She's kinda weird and even though she has an OK voice, its not all that. Plus....people are not going to be talking about her because her name is difficult, so she is going to lose some of that water cooler crowd.
5. Didi - I'm all over the place on Didi (as anyone following along knows). I picked her to win the whole thing a month ago. Two weeks ago I wasn't sure she would make the top 12. Down deep, I still believe that this girl has talent and she's got a good personality that should mix with the talent to propel her into the top 5
4. Lee - Another tough one. I think he suffers too much from the David Cook comparisons that will be drawn. People are going to want something different. Not sure if he will make it this far or not, but I don't think he'll go farther.
3. Michael Lynche (Big Mike) - He is definitely the Josh Gracin, Phil Stacey this year. He deserves to be voted off earlier, but he's going to make the top 5 based entirely on his personality and "likeability". His performance last week came across totally cheesy to me, but he is the kind of guy that America wants to root for. But that can only get you so far (except...footnote, Taylor Hicks)
2. Crystal - She's got the talent, but I'm not sure that she has the likeability factor that is often important in the Idol contest. She comes across a little too raw to appeal to the masses, IMHO....so I'm not even sure that she will make the Top 2...but she should and she very well could win.
1. Casey - I'm going against my better judgement. It has been the guys for two years in a row now. Its very unlikely that it is going to be a guy, however, I'm just not sure that America is going to buy into the whole Crystal granola deal. Her style is not the typical AI genre....and Casey has the looks, the charm and the talent that make up the AI package.